Conflicting Data

We got some conflicting data from China that sent the futures lower and thus the markets. Not much as far as bounces but there were some nice movers such as NFLX and FOSL. Trader are waiting till the fed at 2pm est. My watch stocks are NFLX, GDOT, PWER, CAGC. The opening trades were NFLX off the 2min and FOSL due to their earnings. NFLX actually set up on the 2min and had news. It then went through a massive run.
What disturbs me about this market is tech. Semis have been lagging and with analyst's channel checks indicating a slowdown for the Dow to stay up is a contradiction. Either semis and techs bounce or the market is setting up for a major down leg.

Flash me a sigh

Ah, what a market. Last post I stated how silly the market was going straight up without any fear like a daytrading ostrich. I sat back weeks ago watching stuff go parabolic and the talking heads on TV telling us how great things are. All along we have an administration that wants to socialize everything with credit markets that won’t lend unless you’re a commercial bank. It didn’t make sense and now we see the reality.
Over the years I really have concluded that the markets are freaking insane. It is like people are trading with side effects of Zoloft or they are just stupid. How can you go from the end is here market where stuff is trading 90percent down to “all is great in the world” market where stuff is up 5fold. Well like Buffet says, “Sell when people are greedy and buy when people are fearful and Goldman Sachs are good guys.” Or something like that.
Well markets are getting really oversold and I expect a bounce shortly. In the meantime, I am trading stocks that are short-term crushed that are trading well as far as bouncing or issues that are holding up well due to news. My 4 trading interests are SOXL..for huge down bounce setup…semi 3x….CSTR, VMW and BIDU…..CSTR has been holding well due to their Redbox division is kicking rear due to Hollywood video and MovieTime going away. VWM trading well to with cloud computing becoming more influential.. Bidu, for bidu sake. This is a trading monster that many people trade and bounces well when the market lifts. Of course with China indices going off a cliff and looking ugly on the daily makes it more risky than normal, but still trades well.

Keep your powder dry and don’t guess a bottom. With things going down so fast you miss it by an hour you can be down big. Heck an hour try minutes!

TRADING: CSTR VMW BIDU SOXL

All is giddy in La La Land

Markets have been flying lately. Ever since I posted last March (Scroll down to March 09, 2009 post) stating that I thought the market has bottomed, we have been straight up. Stocks such as MU which I bought in the 2s are up by multiples. Now we are at a level where massive runs are being bought straight up with no pullback without regards to valuations. Ex. Netflix (NFLX) Also, we have had moves in small banks that are doubling during a session. This is the bio-polar opposite from the March 09 move. People have forgotten we are not in a free wheeling, free debt, environment. The growth that is being priced into the stocks will not be matched by reality. We have a restrictive credit environment for the consumer and we have an administration that is passing restrictive legislation that will further mute growth. Markets are totally ignoring this and partying like it is 1999. I feel unless we get a political stalemate, the markets are headed for a major correction as more of these socialist programs become law. There is no way we can keep going sky high with interest rates holding zero, out of control government debt without something giving way either with higher rates or taxes. The math doesn't ad up. I have sold half of my positions that I acquired near the lows and will have tight stops or sell into further rallies.
My greatest fear is that rates are not raised and the markets get out of hand and correct. If that happens, the fed doesn't have their interest rate gun loaded. What happens then? Another bailout run on the dollar?

Also, I am going to start posting daily stocks that I am day-trading.

Vix told the tale

The vix recently hit a very low level which historically was associated with a reversal. As evident by the action latetly which has been very thin and choppy, there isn't much conviction in this market. I have been fading pop opens and only going long news worthy stocks or those that had a very bullish technical basis for buying. But even then, I have a very close stop. The dollar/equities correlation still in effect. Every rally in the dollar translates into a market hit. This makes it very dificult to trade.
Just sitting back watching for some leadership. Hopefully we will get some runners that have some news and become a target for the momentum guys.

They hit the sell button

For some reason this morning started out with aggressive selling across the board with no bounce till the end of day. I have been worried about this market for weeks in that the action was very thin and driven by the dollar decline. Also, many intra-day movers were faded and did not that the velocity that previous bull runs had. Is this the start of something big? Hard to say. Next couple days will be pivotal.

As far as stocks, my watch list includes. DGW NANO HEAT RINO TRIT TSL CGA. These performed well today and some actually closed green after the morning down open.
DGW RINO TRIT are Chinese water treatment which is a big deal over there.

Does the train stop here?

Total 180 on economic data puts some kinks in the perma-bull outlook of this fantasy V bottom recovery.
Everyday I read about the consumer revolt against credit card rates rising. Across the board people are getting slammed by rising rates by these worthless companies that we bailed out. Thanks a lot! You would think that for us saving their asses we would at least be thanked by keeping credit affordable and flowing but no!!!. They jack rates up to levels that loan shark charge. I wonder if there was a leg breaking clause in my loan agreement?
People have to look at this as a possible serious headway for a strong recovery. People retract when events like this happen and save to pay off loans not spend.

Trading wise still very bullish on AONE. I think this becomes like my last winner. CYOU which by the way I am done with. It has lost it's mo mo after the GAME ipo debacle. AONE has the story. Sure it is spec but I love a good new issue story.
Today did some HIG scalp on the bounce after the initial market hit. Also, have some AMSC from last week. That looks higher on the daily. That is if this market doesn't rollover and die. I am worried about Friday if those numbers come in weak. That might be the catalyst to roll the market into a correction.

Momemtum change?

This is the first day in weeks where the market open down and went lower without a bounce by noon. It seems that the weak economic data followed some doubtful data yesterday, has taken some wind out of the rally. This pullback is needed in a big way. The action was straight up with speculative stocks running out of control. AIG 13 to 29 in 2days? Ring Ring. Alarm bells go off.

I will just sit and observe the issues that hold up the best and have the largest bounces like STEC. Also a new stock has come across my radar GRRF. This company is up big on good volume after stellar earnings. The daily chart looks great two with a cup and handle breakout. I will watch to see if the momentum and volume continue.

Meanwhile, I notice that some squirrel became famous overnight by jumping in front of a camera of some couple on vacation in Alaska. While I thought this was a funny I did think it was just a fluke. But now the squirrel is popping up in photos all over the world. When with this media hungry rodent stop? This picture hog is socking away camera time like a squirrel hoarding nuts.