Rally time again

Markets at this time are lifting off their lows due to the downgrading of Rita. So I guess the end of the world is cancelled till later. Actually, the market has held up quite well concidering the ugly numbers from Oracle and AA. But, by the action you can tell people are not betting the farm on the positive outcome. Just a wait and see approach kind of a climbing the wall of worry. This should continue till monday when we get an idea the damage. Hopefully this thing keeps losing strenght.

As far as trades go, SHLD went up nicely and my QQQQ are doing quite well. The bouncers that I posted yesterday are doing a nice recovery move as the market contiunes to build. This is evident by oil. If the world was coming to the end for oil production in this region, then the price wouldn't be so far down. I think it is a combo of fear of post storm reaction like after Katrina and that global demand might fall. Oil is actually way below where it was before all thise Katrina and Rita mess.

Now the key to a sustained market recovery, will be that demand and economy activity won't slide off too much. I figure, if gas prices don't spike huge, this all might be a temporary blip. As far as tech stocks go though, they tend to backward load their quarter in the final weeks. Thus, if we get any surprise warnings, this could turn them and the market a heartbeat. If they sell I doubt that big money runs to areas like housing due to that material costs have risen considerabley and might put off projects outside of the hurricane damaged areas. Maybe healthcare and bios who knows ,but for now, the oversold bounce continues.

I sold my SHLD, ISRG from yesterday for a nice profit. I am keeping my qqqq into next week for more of a swing trade. Also, staying away from GOOG due to that all time high breakout and sell-off to unchanged weirdness. Kind of scares me know to trade it. Also, haven't done some of the techs like GNSS or SNDK due to I hate how they trade. With those, you have to get in perfect or they will whip you out in a heartbeat for a loss.

Oh well back to paint dry market. It isn't exciting, but it is profitable if you wait for the oportunity.

Rally time

I am calling rally time. We are oversold and the sky hasn't fallen yet. My trades are mainly indices like the QQQ down here. I think this cane misses the major refinery areas and the heavily populated areas so we might catch a break. Thus, being things are crushed, it is a good time to move into some bounce plays. The list is, ISRG QSII SHLD UTHR AMGN etc. Shld is a pure oversold bounce. I have already traded it today and got two. Looks good to 120 above. The others are relative strength leaders that have been down with the market. You almost have to get in now rather than later if Rita isn't as bad as they say being technicals are screaming, "cover and go long". Also, keep and eye on that Chinese medical company Cramer blubbered about, CMED. First day up on that one and being it was a recent new issue, it might follow through.

Bouncey

Well 4x Witch is never fun but being the market was down 3 days in a row and we were at support, (50day both in the sox and QQQQ), we lifted mainly at the end of day. As far as leaders go, bidu and goog did nothing but KOSP lifted nice due to findings that digital mamograms do better for women 50 and under. This lifted the stock nicely through out the day abd could be a water shed for the company. Think about it. The ablity to turn everything to digital is the future. Take for example what happenned with hurricane Katrina. Many people permantely lost their medical records due to they were hard copy on site. Putting that in a digital form, would enable these records to be stored off-site. After 911 and this storm, there should be a mandate to turn everything into digital form to back them up in various areas.

Outside of that, IPII was a nice bounce off 20.6 which I got two points on. And I am long the QQQQ off the bottom channel and will see if we retest that post Katrina high. What might break us through is the shear money being spent to rebuild after Katrina. Now on the neg side is interest rates. I will be watching the 10yr to see if that top yield range won't be violated. If that happens, all bets are off. This whole spending re-build has been ingored so far by the bond market but there has to be a limit somewhere. If rates suddenly spike, this will show the bond holders believe the deficit is becoming a problem.

Well now oversold .

We are down smartly in the last couple days. Technically we look like we should have a bounce. But, being this is options expiration week, anything can happen. Trade wise, I bought IPII for a recovery bounce, some of the other companies in that area are moving and this thing is straight down from 28. Outside of that and buying GOOG on the dips there isn't a lot going on. TZOO is getting some move as I write this from some press, but lately it has been sell the news so I will watch to see if it is more than a pump dump.

Overextended?

Well some areas are up a lot in the last couple sessions so I am looking at my favorite scalps, GOOG and BIDU on a reaction pullback. I.E. panic down and buy for a scalp bounce. Also, ENER might bounce after it looks to open lower from their earnings release last night. CERN might be a buy being an uprade to a 100 price target. Electronic medical records are the future. More so after the many records lost from Katrina's wake. Thus. here is a need for off-site backup and I feel this disaster hit home again for that to be mandated. Outside of that, who knows. The market is short-term over bought but, still it seems the best trades are the news plays, volume breakouts.

Vacation is over

Well, yesterday the market started in a positive tone and kept it all the way through. Being we didn't really sell into this Katrina calamity, the shorts pretty much threw in the towel resulting in a nice rally. Of which, sectors like the bios, marched on. ex. BBH is at a new high. They continued show their strength along with material stocks such as BMHC, which I traded off the open but sold too soon. Also, IPII reversed to show some green by end of the day. I am watching that one to see if it re-attempts that high.

This morning EFII is gaping due to raising numbers. I caught some of that last night and worked well. Also, some low floaterJCTCF, which is a lumber stock has caught a bid again. I watched it yesterday but being it is so thin and the spread is huge, I just observed.

Well, all in all, the market trades in it's own world where bad is good and good is gooder. It seems like no matter what you try to spin on the economy, the market totally ignores all risk and just kind of marches it's happy way. This is of course will only continue if gas doesn't stay at 3 bucks a gallon or we don't get a lot of earnings warnings shortly. Thus, trade the trade, not the money, bank the money and don't think too much, is the strategy.