Monday, March 09, 2009

I feel a Rally Cometh

Ring! Ring! Time to go long! Action of the market seems washed out. You have major TV shows commenting on how bad the market is and when that happens, it is almost the same as when the cab drivers, during a rampaging bull market, start giving you stock tips.
I am sticking to the ETFs at this point to avoid any company specific risk but if you must own common go with individual stocks such as, AMZN, INTC NVDA et. Charts with basing pattern. This is a good time to observe chart patterns of stocks that held up during this debacle. NFLX is one that is breaking out and could go much higher but usually in an unconfirmed market turn I keep with ETFs. I am going with SSO first then QQQQ, and DDM. SSO is spx500. DDM is the DOw.. Also the Russell etf IWM.

There are so many other sector etfs like the FAS which I like very long term but the best overtime for a big bang in my opinion is the DXO which I have been loading up on since 2. They are 2.50. The theory here is oil has bottomed and with all these twisted economic stimulus plans and how strong the dollar has been, oil should show strength. Actually even with worsening news commodities have been ticking up and being this ETF (DXO) has been as high as 30 a 50percent retrace of the highs is 15. Think about it. Oil isn't going to zero and this etf was started at oil's high so the move could be huge. I figure also if we get inflation and people pull money out of the dollar (safe haven parking lot) oil will appreciated even more.

So to conclude, we are due for a bear market rally so I want to take the least risk with the greatest return by sticking to the broad etfs for a trade. So I will begin to average in to these and if we go lower dollar cost average. When markets are this far down so fast, sinking everyday it is hard to nail it perfect so averaging will lessen the blow if you are off. This reminds me of the tech wreck where Yahoo was down in the 8s and if you missed the entry by a day you were down a buck. But all in all the timing was right cause when it turned it went up multiples.
Also, here is a link for the Jon Stewart show where they spend about 10minutes blasting Wall Street and CNBC. Mainly Jim Cramer. If that isn't some kind of a warning bell I don't know what is!

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