Daytrading and Short-term Swingtrades

Conflicting Data

2010-08-10T08:41:00.000-07:00

We got some conflicting data from China that sent the futures lower and thus the markets. Not much as far as bounces but there were some nice movers such as NFLX and FOSL. Trader are waiting till the fed at 2pm est. My watch stocks are NFLX, GDOT, PWER, CAGC. The opening trades were NFLX off the 2min and FOSL due to their earnings. NFLX actually set up on the 2min and had news. It then went through a massive run.
What disturbs me about this market is tech. Semis have been lagging and with analyst's channel checks indicating a slowdown for the Dow to stay up is a contradiction. Either semis and techs bounce or the market is setting up for a major down leg.

Flash me a sigh

2010-05-20T07:34:00.000-07:00

Ah, what a market. Last post I stated how silly the market was going straight up without any fear like a daytrading ostrich. I sat back weeks ago watching stuff go parabolic and the talking heads on TV telling us how great things are. All along we have an administration that wants to socialize everything with credit markets that won’t lend unless you’re a commercial bank. It didn’t make sense and now we see the reality.
Over the years I really have concluded that the markets are freaking insane. It is like people are trading with side effects of Zoloft or they are just stupid. How can you go from the end is here market where stuff is trading 90percent down to “all is great in the world” market where stuff is up 5fold. Well like Buffet says, “Sell when people are greedy and buy when people are fearful and Goldman Sachs are good guys.” Or something like that.
Well markets are getting really oversold and I expect a bounce shortly. In the meantime, I am trading stocks that are short-term crushed that are trading well as far as bouncing or issues that are holding up well due to news. My 4 trading interests are SOXL..for huge down bounce setup…semi 3x….CSTR, VMW and BIDU…..CSTR has been holding well due to their Redbox division is kicking rear due to Hollywood video and MovieTime going away. VWM trading well to with cloud computing becoming more influential.. Bidu, for bidu sake. This is a trading monster that many people trade and bounces well when the market lifts. Of course with China indices going off a cliff and looking ugly on the daily makes it more risky than normal, but still trades well.

Keep your powder dry and don’t guess a bottom. With things going down so fast you miss it by an hour you can be down big. Heck an hour try minutes!

TRADING: CSTR VMW BIDU SOXL

All is giddy in La La Land

2010-04-26T12:24:00.001-07:00

Markets have been flying lately. Ever since I posted last March (Scroll down to March 09, 2009 post) stating that I thought the market has bottomed, we have been straight up. Stocks such as MU which I bought in the 2s are up by multiples. Now we are at a level where massive runs are being bought straight up with no pullback without regards to valuations. Ex. Netflix (NFLX) Also, we have had moves in small banks that are doubling during a session. This is the bio-polar opposite from the March 09 move. People have forgotten we are not in a free wheeling, free debt, environment. The growth that is being priced into the stocks will not be matched by reality. We have a restrictive credit environment for the consumer and we have an administration that is passing restrictive legislation that will further mute growth. Markets are totally ignoring this and partying like it is 1999. I feel unless we get a political stalemate, the markets are headed for a major correction as more of these socialist programs become law. There is no way we can keep going sky high with interest rates holding zero, out of control government debt without something giving way either with higher rates or taxes. The math doesn't ad up. I have sold half of my positions that I acquired near the lows and will have tight stops or sell into further rallies.
My greatest fear is that rates are not raised and the markets get out of hand and correct. If that happens, the fed doesn't have their interest rate gun loaded. What happens then? Another bailout run on the dollar?

Also, I am going to start posting daily stocks that I am day-trading.

Vix told the tale

2009-12-09T07:38:00.000-08:00

The vix recently hit a very low level which historically was associated with a reversal. As evident by the action latetly which has been very thin and choppy, there isn't much conviction in this market. I have been fading pop opens and only going long news worthy stocks or those that had a very bullish technical basis for buying. But even then, I have a very close stop. The dollar/equities correlation still in effect. Every rally in the dollar translates into a market hit. This makes it very dificult to trade.
Just sitting back watching for some leadership. Hopefully we will get some runners that have some news and become a target for the momentum guys.

They hit the sell button

2009-11-19T13:02:00.000-08:00

For some reason this morning started out with aggressive selling across the board with no bounce till the end of day. I have been worried about this market for weeks in that the action was very thin and driven by the dollar decline. Also, many intra-day movers were faded and did not that the velocity that previous bull runs had. Is this the start of something big? Hard to say. Next couple days will be pivotal.

As far as stocks, my watch list includes. DGW NANO HEAT RINO TRIT TSL CGA. These performed well today and some actually closed green after the morning down open.
DGW RINO TRIT are Chinese water treatment which is a big deal over there.

Does the train stop here?

2009-09-30T08:21:00.000-07:00

Total 180 on economic data puts some kinks in the perma-bull outlook of this fantasy V bottom recovery.
Everyday I read about the consumer revolt against credit card rates rising. Across the board people are getting slammed by rising rates by these worthless companies that we bailed out. Thanks a lot! You would think that for us saving their asses we would at least be thanked by keeping credit affordable and flowing but no!!!. They jack rates up to levels that loan shark charge. I wonder if there was a leg breaking clause in my loan agreement?
People have to look at this as a possible serious headway for a strong recovery. People retract when events like this happen and save to pay off loans not spend.

Trading wise still very bullish on AONE. I think this becomes like my last winner. CYOU which by the way I am done with. It has lost it's mo mo after the GAME ipo debacle. AONE has the story. Sure it is spec but I love a good new issue story.
Today did some HIG scalp on the bounce after the initial market hit. Also, have some AMSC from last week. That looks higher on the daily. That is if this market doesn't rollover and die. I am worried about Friday if those numbers come in weak. That might be the catalyst to roll the market into a correction.

Momemtum change?

2009-08-14T08:23:00.000-07:00

This is the first day in weeks where the market open down and went lower without a bounce by noon. It seems that the weak economic data followed some doubtful data yesterday, has taken some wind out of the rally. This pullback is needed in a big way. The action was straight up with speculative stocks running out of control. AIG 13 to 29 in 2days? Ring Ring. Alarm bells go off.

I will just sit and observe the issues that hold up the best and have the largest bounces like STEC. Also a new stock has come across my radar GRRF. This company is up big on good volume after stellar earnings. The daily chart looks great two with a cup and handle breakout. I will watch to see if the momentum and volume continue.

Meanwhile, I notice that some squirrel became famous overnight by jumping in front of a camera of some couple on vacation in Alaska. While I thought this was a funny I did think it was just a fluke. But now the squirrel is popping up in photos all over the world. When with this media hungry rodent stop? This picture hog is socking away camera time like a squirrel hoarding nuts.

Swing Trading

2009-06-29T10:00:00.000-07:00

Pretty much doing swing-trading now of CYOU and others. Market has been so random lately so it is very hard to daytrade or scalp. But I notice individual deals are still working. For example, CYOU at 34 last week was a gift and bounced 6 dollars.
Until we break out of this trading range and bring in some volume, I am sticking to individual stocks with swing trading rather than trying to daytrade. So far, less stress more money!

Questionable Recovery

2009-05-28T07:22:00.001-07:00

This action was so predictable from a psychological standpoint. At the low ( look below for bottom call bounce) Market was in panic then bounced when little "green shoots" appeared..(Reminds me of a flower garden I put in the back yard. I thought the green shoots were the flowers budding. So, I watered and fertilized them and they turned out to be weeds.) hmmm sounds like a parable to this bailout and stimulus plan. So do we get an "L" shaped recovery?
My DXO play is gold at this point, but now I am debating whether to sell it from my 2buy point. The play wasn't just on the price of oil recovering based on demand but also an inflation play from the results of pork barrel spending by our government resulting in dollar weakness and rates rising. This also is launching precious metals. At this point I am just scalping. Tech should rollover here after there meteoric rise if the broad market continues it's sell-off. That is if we break the low end of the trading range. Tech has been leading.

Stress Test

2009-04-24T09:12:00.001-07:00

Well we are at the point where the fed releases some "stress test'info. Better known as fog the mirror. This should be interesting. It seems some banks are breaking out and others are lagging so the fas faz are getting somewhat stale.
Market is up 100plus but at 2pm the stress results are released. The market reaction should be interesting.
As far as trading goes pretty much just scalp trading outside of a couple, CYOU and DXO. Bought DXO at 2.5 the other day and will sell if hits 3. It has been pretty consistent. CYOU also. Got some down in the 25s sold today near 28. Amazing how thin that stock is but how it trades a consistent range.
All in all, a gap open build day. Should be interesting if we get some big sell off. Just watching cause i know it can happen after 2 but haven't bet on it. If we don't sell they probably will squeeze this to the close.

Banks get some doubt

2009-04-20T09:47:00.000-07:00

I posted last Tuesday the action was getting toppy. This was confirmed Friday with the endless bounces off the lows and the parabolic nature of some financial stocks. Today we got some BAC news and we have been down from the get go. The key will be do we test the 835 support or go to the 780-800 SPX range.
Not much action today outside of a nice run on DNDN off the open. DRYS which was a huge volume winner Friday had no follow through and had no bounce at all but then the commodities such as oil are getting creamed and those are economically sensitive. Dry bulks tend to be correlated with those groups.
Watching in cash outside of some little position in SRS, which is the real-estate short etf. That is flying today along with the financial short etfs. Key will be end of the day if we get a bounce like we have pretty much every day for the last 2 weeks. Might get a slight bounce be it doesn't really squeeze back up we could blow through the low of the day.
Watching CYOU down here from that top up at 29. Very thin stock but might dollar cost average down here being how volitile it is.

Short-term Top

2009-04-14T09:03:00.000-07:00

Market getting giddy in some areas. The best was DNDN, with a massive gap which was such and obvious open short being the history this company has with disappointing people. Outside of that, the finnys are way up there and due for some backing off. Strong groups, drybulkers, GNK,EGLE,DRYS and a bounce with the educational stocks. Retailers are getting hit with weak retail numbers.
As far as a trade goes just scalping and watching. Did some bounce on DNDN near the sell off open and played the bounce and short NFLX on the open for a point but no clear trade right in here. Probably the FAZ to swing trade it for a day or so but with C still being so strong and this talk of being the next Volkswagen short nightmare it is some what muted.

Also with DNDN. Jim Cramer said "sell", "sell" "sell". Last week! Really amazing. I hope that person wasn't the same one he told to hold Bear before they collapsed.

#crew you GM

2009-03-30T07:49:00.000-07:00

Well my long call was straight on a couple weeks back and as this went up I took my profits. Now this morning I am perplexed on what do with this GM news. It seems our glorious government that will give 100plus billion to AIG, no question ask that some how finds it's way to Goldman and overseas banks takes a stick to our auto industry. Market doesn't like it but how can you blame em. This changing trends in policy and rules midstream has people confused and paralyzed and you don't want that when your trending water after your boat sank.
As far as trades go I am waiting for some reaction type panic set up for some scalps and observing the stocks that don't sell to see if they become leaders on the next bounce.
As far as this crisis goes and the fed, South Park's episode explains it beautifully.
I especially like this part below. This explains the logic behind the fed and how they come about their decisions.

This is funny also:

So Far So Good

2009-03-11T12:45:00.000-07:00

That call the other day on a bottom has been working very well. The FAS SSO are doing very well. It is funny how this market can turn on a dime and things can go ballistic. Some of the moves we have seen are huge but that was expected. So far I am holding the longs but will re-evaluate tomorrow to see if we go sideways or just roll back over. I notice some like AMZN broke a trading range.

I feel a Rally Cometh

2009-03-09T07:07:00.000-07:00

Ring! Ring! Time to go long! Action of the market seems washed out. You have major TV shows commenting on how bad the market is and when that happens, it is almost the same as when the cab drivers, during a rampaging bull market, start giving you stock tips.
I am sticking to the ETFs at this point to avoid any company specific risk but if you must own common go with individual stocks such as, AMZN, INTC NVDA et. Charts with basing pattern. This is a good time to observe chart patterns of stocks that held up during this debacle. NFLX is one that is breaking out and could go much higher but usually in an unconfirmed market turn I keep with ETFs. I am going with SSO first then QQQQ, and DDM. SSO is spx500. DDM is the DOw.. Also the Russell etf IWM.

There are so many other sector etfs like the FAS which I like very long term but the best overtime for a big bang in my opinion is the DXO which I have been loading up on since 2. They are 2.50. The theory here is oil has bottomed and with all these twisted economic stimulus plans and how strong the dollar has been, oil should show strength. Actually even with worsening news commodities have been ticking up and being this ETF (DXO) has been as high as 30 a 50percent retrace of the highs is 15. Think about it. Oil isn't going to zero and this etf was started at oil's high so the move could be huge. I figure also if we get inflation and people pull money out of the dollar (safe haven parking lot) oil will appreciated even more.

So to conclude, we are due for a bear market rally so I want to take the least risk with the greatest return by sticking to the broad etfs for a trade. So I will begin to average in to these and if we go lower dollar cost average. When markets are this far down so fast, sinking everyday it is hard to nail it perfect so averaging will lessen the blow if you are off. This reminds me of the tech wreck where Yahoo was down in the 8s and if you missed the entry by a day you were down a buck. But all in all the timing was right cause when it turned it went up multiples.
Also, here is a link for the Jon Stewart show where they spend about 10minutes blasting Wall Street and CNBC. Mainly Jim Cramer. If that isn't some kind of a warning bell I don't know what is!

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

CNBC Gives Financial Advice

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things With Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Joke of the Day

Crash TIme?

2009-02-10T12:58:00.000-08:00

Is this it where this whole sham just falls apart? In a way I hope it collapses cause what is going on now isn't healthy for the long-term. We have been totally screwed and yet the sheep in this country haven't shown any anger at all. Maybe a meltdown will wake the fools up to the aristocrasy determnation to destroy this country. I am staying in cash till this all works out.

The waiting game

2009-02-10T07:54:00.000-08:00

What a market. I haven't seen this kind of whipsaw action in a long time if ever. It is tough due to unless your just watching a couple deals, you get into the wack 0' mole mode where by the time you hop on something moving, the rodent goes back in the hole and you get stopped.
The financials are up nicely into this and are starting to sell as the plan gets out. The key will be the trend. Do we sell the news? Or does the market head fake and continue to recover. I want the trend to show itself rather than guess due to this chop can kill you. One's acting well are NFLX which I still think goes much higher do to the innovative new product they have. Plus the stock has a good daily chart and is acting very bullish. On the humorous side has to be Cnbc's David Faber's interview of former Fed head Greenspan. Greenie actually said he was un-aware of the speculation in housing and was surprised. I almost feel out of my chair on that one. My construction worker nephew with no formal education saw the bubble and wanted to know how he could get in on it back in 2004. Either this corruption runs so deep or we are in an era of total incompetency.

With everything turn turn turn

2009-01-09T12:54:00.000-08:00

For some reason that song is stuck in my head. But, maybe it applies to this market. The buy the dip all will be better rally from the bottom seems turning. Now the key is do we stick to the existing trading range? As far as stocks go the DRYS insanity continues but looks like a short here and Palm is back. At least the market thinks so with their new operating system and product due out. Who knows. But I like the volume to daytrade it. Just scalping away and watching the charts. All out of my DRYS from the lows down around 4. Still have my 2buck MU which seems to be a long-term deal.

Land of Chop

2008-11-10T11:27:00.001-08:00

Markets openned higher today really for no good reason other than the Chinese stimulus plan but as with any news lately they sold it right back down. Markets holding up somewhat but some key companies getting crushed like financials and autos. How long will the market believe things are just rosy if these behemoths bite the dust. Really no real good trades other than the gap short the open. Some runners in this mess like INT are doing well but they are over done on the daily. Guess the same game of shorting big fast pops and buying big huge downs, (of companies without bad news) seems to be the only thing working. Everything in between is just chop (i.e. a guess)

Daytwo

2008-10-29T12:08:00.000-07:00

Yesterday was a break in the normal pattern. We started off the same. Nice gap and fade but we held support with no volume or selling conviction. As the day progressed the daily pattern fell apart with the market climbing. After 2pm the shorts saw it wasn't going to roll over and the market went bonkers. This appears to be a short-term bottom. Wether it is a start of a new bullmarket is yet to be scene being much of this economic fall-out hasn't been reflected in the numbers. The key will be if the economy can V bottom rather languish along. If we just stablize, then the markets will overshoot and set up for another test or susiquent low.
I am still just trading the move and not looking back.

Timely update

2008-09-09T09:08:00.000-07:00

Yes it has only been 2yrs since I updated this blog. My awful habit of procrastination and delay is getting the better of me. Anyway, this is the day after the Fed takes over fannie and freddie.
We had this huge massive pop on the open yesterday with a pretty predictable sell-off.It then recovered but still lacked the zip being tech was wrecked.
Today, just selling in financials some stabilization in tech such as Apple and Rimm but the materials and solars are breaking down trashing their key support. Definitely staying away and only shorting technical breakdowns for the quick implosion.
This is a very dangerous market for the longs. Discipline is the key to a successful trade. Every trade has to have a true set up. No guessing. For example, yesterday with UAUA. The stock started plunging which set up an oversold bounce. Unfortunately there was 6yr old bogus news on bankruptcy that caused it to melt. When all said and done it went from 12 to 3 to 11 after it was released from the halt. Of course if your long and see a headline of bankruptcy, you sell without thinking. This is how dangerous the market is.

Looking back on some of my calls I pretty much nailed housing and the inflation b.s. that turned out to be a problem but my lack of posting my call on the commodities top ticks me off cause it was so evident by the action of some of those issues. Oh well I have to get back to posting more often

No Inflation!

2006-09-15T07:42:00.000-07:00

We at least that is what we are being told. The straight up market continues as we get "as expected" cpi. I am selling into this though being we are up against a market high and we are too far too fast. Plus nobody is risk adverse right now. You have groups like housing flying. I guess they can just ignore that inventory build. Shows you fast money back and it is pure momemtum. Which is fine but overbought is overbought. Also, oil keeps dropping like a stone. Must be elections soon! Oh, yeah there is. Funny how the booming world economy was running out of oil 2 months ago and now when we are close to the November elections oil mysteriously drops like a lead balloon. Manipulation, games, govt involvment...nah

Hello Again

2006-08-27T19:08:00.000-07:00

God I am lazy. It has been 7monts sinse I have posted anything on the market. Still been trading just busy...or I should say lazy. Market is the dooldrums. Volume is pathetic, most stuff looks propped up. Of course some things are going up like tech which really has no reason to. Economy is gettin weaker, housing tanking and overseas looks dangerous. But, the only thing I can see positive is maybe oil comes down and kicks things up some. Of course the real-estate factor could be more ugly than people think. I like to brag but said back in Aug of last year that real estate hit a top with Katrina. Being resourses would go there inflating and delaying building elsewhere. Seems like I was right. Of course pundits are saying things are different this time. I whole heartly agree as I read in Wall Street Journal on how some illegal alien bought at 500k house with a 3k a month mortgage and only makes 40k a year. That makes sense. Wonder how many of these are out there where lenders look the other way at the true ablility of the loan applicants to pay just to pass the paper along and make a commish.
I don't thin we have seen the end of this one. There is going to be some 1st class ugly showing up that will be like a lead anchor for this economy. Of course the beauty of real estate is location location location. But, I am adding one more. Financing. If you in fixed at a good load to value, who cares long as you can afford to pay the mtg. So for many out there it won't matter. But, all this excess building and speculation has to show up after that excess stops. From durable goods to escavation equiptment.

As far as the market goes, this is vacation time. Real trading will resume after labor day.

Googley Oggley

2006-01-22T19:28:00.000-08:00

Been awhile since I have posted. Pretty much been due to lazyness. Just been so busy but really want to get this blog going right.

Anyway, market took a header into the shallow end friday as the reality of the "gee oil is at 67 bucks" took hold. It is amazing the flow of tards that were on CNBC for a week saying this is the new start of a fantastic run as oil creaped all along. I sat amazed seeing brokerages upgrading stocks that were in a parabolic run. Usually a sign of a top.

Where do we go from here? Who knows with what is going on in Iran and with oil. If oil keeps it's northbound move, all bets are off. There is a limit to how high oil goes before it is reflected in a slowdown.

As far as stock plays go, I am sticking to ones that have intraday news such as blowout earnings. Also, might go for the bounce play in recent darlings such as BRCM and such being the first bounce is always the biggest. That is of course if they bounce. But beyond that bounce, I am just scalping. It is very easy to get caught int he mentality that, "oh it is down soo much it much" As long as oil is up here or moves higher many of these high flyers can be crushed thus scalping with strict stops is the key

Rally time again

2005-09-23T11:03:00.000-07:00

Markets at this time are lifting off their lows due to the downgrading of Rita. So I guess the end of the world is cancelled till later. Actually, the market has held up quite well concidering the ugly numbers from Oracle and AA. But, by the action you can tell people are not betting the farm on the positive outcome. Just a wait and see approach kind of a climbing the wall of worry. This should continue till monday when we get an idea the damage. Hopefully this thing keeps losing strenght.

As far as trades go, SHLD went up nicely and my QQQQ are doing quite well. The bouncers that I posted yesterday are doing a nice recovery move as the market contiunes to build. This is evident by oil. If the world was coming to the end for oil production in this region, then the price wouldn't be so far down. I think it is a combo of fear of post storm reaction like after Katrina and that global demand might fall. Oil is actually way below where it was before all thise Katrina and Rita mess.

Now the key to a sustained market recovery, will be that demand and economy activity won't slide off too much. I figure, if gas prices don't spike huge, this all might be a temporary blip. As far as tech stocks go though, they tend to backward load their quarter in the final weeks. Thus, if we get any surprise warnings, this could turn them and the market a heartbeat. If they sell I doubt that big money runs to areas like housing due to that material costs have risen considerabley and might put off projects outside of the hurricane damaged areas. Maybe healthcare and bios who knows ,but for now, the oversold bounce continues.

I sold my SHLD, ISRG from yesterday for a nice profit. I am keeping my qqqq into next week for more of a swing trade. Also, staying away from GOOG due to that all time high breakout and sell-off to unchanged weirdness. Kind of scares me know to trade it. Also, haven't done some of the techs like GNSS or SNDK due to I hate how they trade. With those, you have to get in perfect or they will whip you out in a heartbeat for a loss.

Oh well back to paint dry market. It isn't exciting, but it is profitable if you wait for the oportunity.

Rally time

2005-09-22T10:44:00.000-07:00

I am calling rally time. We are oversold and the sky hasn't fallen yet. My trades are mainly indices like the QQQ down here. I think this cane misses the major refinery areas and the heavily populated areas so we might catch a break. Thus, being things are crushed, it is a good time to move into some bounce plays. The list is, ISRG QSII SHLD UTHR AMGN etc. Shld is a pure oversold bounce. I have already traded it today and got two. Looks good to 120 above. The others are relative strength leaders that have been down with the market. You almost have to get in now rather than later if Rita isn't as bad as they say being technicals are screaming, "cover and go long". Also, keep and eye on that Chinese medical company Cramer blubbered about, CMED. First day up on that one and being it was a recent new issue, it might follow through.

Bouncey

2005-09-17T18:17:00.000-07:00

Well 4x Witch is never fun but being the market was down 3 days in a row and we were at support, (50day both in the sox and QQQQ), we lifted mainly at the end of day. As far as leaders go, bidu and goog did nothing but KOSP lifted nice due to findings that digital mamograms do better for women 50 and under. This lifted the stock nicely through out the day abd could be a water shed for the company. Think about it. The ablity to turn everything to digital is the future. Take for example what happenned with hurricane Katrina. Many people permantely lost their medical records due to they were hard copy on site. Putting that in a digital form, would enable these records to be stored off-site. After 911 and this storm, there should be a mandate to turn everything into digital form to back them up in various areas.

Outside of that, IPII was a nice bounce off 20.6 which I got two points on. And I am long the QQQQ off the bottom channel and will see if we retest that post Katrina high. What might break us through is the shear money being spent to rebuild after Katrina. Now on the neg side is interest rates. I will be watching the 10yr to see if that top yield range won't be violated. If that happens, all bets are off. This whole spending re-build has been ingored so far by the bond market but there has to be a limit somewhere. If rates suddenly spike, this will show the bond holders believe the deficit is becoming a problem.

Well now oversold .

2005-09-15T12:00:00.000-07:00

We are down smartly in the last couple days. Technically we look like we should have a bounce. But, being this is options expiration week, anything can happen. Trade wise, I bought IPII for a recovery bounce, some of the other companies in that area are moving and this thing is straight down from 28. Outside of that and buying GOOG on the dips there isn't a lot going on. TZOO is getting some move as I write this from some press, but lately it has been sell the news so I will watch to see if it is more than a pump dump.

Overextended?

2005-09-13T06:04:00.000-07:00

Well some areas are up a lot in the last couple sessions so I am looking at my favorite scalps, GOOG and BIDU on a reaction pullback. I.E. panic down and buy for a scalp bounce. Also, ENER might bounce after it looks to open lower from their earnings release last night. CERN might be a buy being an uprade to a 100 price target. Electronic medical records are the future. More so after the many records lost from Katrina's wake. Thus. here is a need for off-site backup and I feel this disaster hit home again for that to be mandated. Outside of that, who knows. The market is short-term over bought but, still it seems the best trades are the news plays, volume breakouts.

Vacation is over

2005-09-07T05:52:00.000-07:00

Well, yesterday the market started in a positive tone and kept it all the way through. Being we didn't really sell into this Katrina calamity, the shorts pretty much threw in the towel resulting in a nice rally. Of which, sectors like the bios, marched on. ex. BBH is at a new high. They continued show their strength along with material stocks such as BMHC, which I traded off the open but sold too soon. Also, IPII reversed to show some green by end of the day. I am watching that one to see if it re-attempts that high.

This morning EFII is gaping due to raising numbers. I caught some of that last night and worked well. Also, some low floaterJCTCF, which is a lumber stock has caught a bid again. I watched it yesterday but being it is so thin and the spread is huge, I just observed.

Well, all in all, the market trades in it's own world where bad is good and good is gooder. It seems like no matter what you try to spin on the economy, the market totally ignores all risk and just kind of marches it's happy way. This is of course will only continue if gas doesn't stay at 3 bucks a gallon or we don't get a lot of earnings warnings shortly. Thus, trade the trade, not the money, bank the money and don't think too much, is the strategy.

Ah Denail just aint a river in Egypt

2005-08-31T20:31:00.000-07:00

Ah the market cratered at 10am when the Chicago PMI showed the biggest drop in years and of course by the end of the day the markets were at new highs due to oil was down a buck. Denail, you have to love it. Moving the markets up with gas at 3bucks, is like buying QCOM at 400 during the tech bubble height. Wallstreet with their infinite stupidity, really thinks all is great and we just keep the real estate bubble going and things go back to normal with all that has hit the fan. I think reality hits come September so it should be a fun month. Of course Greenfraud keeps his "inflation is in control" speal as we pay record prices for commodities. And of course there is no inflation when housing prices are out of control. After all you just look at the monthly payment. But if that was the case, then we should look at the monthly credit card payment rather than the price of items purchased.
I was looking at pricing in the Asheville, NY area and almost feel out of my chair. I wonder when people wake up to the fraud that Greenspan and his greedy puppet masters are pulling over this country's eyes. When they do wake up, it is going to be a big case of ugly. I guess people forget pain quickly.

As far as trading, just doing the old standbye GOOG for scalps and did the material building stocks that have soared. BMHC and IPII are parabolic straight up. I understand the logic to a degree but remember if there are shortages of materials, how will sales go up? You can't profit from what you can't sell. Also, DNA broke a new high which is interesting. But, all in all, another August day where you really can't make much out of anything. I will wait till September when the numbers start rolling in. That should be fun given we are still up nicely in the market and there has been no correction into higher prices and the oil move. One thing on oil, we might have seen the shorterm top being we had the worse news you could have and it hasn't gone much higher than it was before the hurricane. Kind of a sell the news. But what I think is really going on is demand might finally start to slack due to the economic slowdown. People are actually driving less due to prices. Thus, it might play out that oil drops, market gets giddy, then reality of why oil has really dropped and then the earnings warnings. Should be interesting. Well I am away for a couple days in the mountains and getting away from the chop. That is of course if I can find the gas to get there.

Where is my cheap Gas!

2005-08-30T08:54:00.000-07:00

Well gas is soaring today, which is a delayed reaction from yesterday's storm. I am typing this as I run to the gas station and get my "cheap gas" before it rockets up more. Taking everything that can hold liquid to fill. Garbage bags, buckets, baseball hats, thimbles etc..lol Thus, market is selling as a result, but not in a panic way. Being this is the end of August, there are not a lot of people around to sell. The key is what happens when people come back from their break. I think reality hits next month and the camp on how "oil doesnt matter anymore" is going to get proven wrong.

As far as trades go, GOOG scalps and maybe a short on ENER tomorrow being it is technically overbought. Still like the deal, but the trade is pure technical being it is up 8 days in a row. As far as GOOG, people might start thinking of the net as a strong sector due to they can't afford to drive anywhere so maybe they do more web surfing..ie helps net stocks. Any perverse logic like this works sometimes, so you heard it here first. Outside of those, BIDU off the open run for 2 worked and CPST is up nice off Cramer pump and some speciality energy deals and such.

All in all just scalping and not getting to wrapped up into buy and hold here. Watching BIDU if it can break that 85 resistence level. It is up today due to some "independent" Chinese reasearch group said they are leading Google over there. Key world, "independent" lol. But all in all, wait for the trade and don't get greedy. Tons of singles to make a homerun rather than big swings till things get better.

Boringville

2005-08-18T08:55:00.000-07:00

Well outside of GOOG scalps and VPHM moving, thus continuing it's northward journey, there is nothing to write home about. Things are thin out there with pops and drops on low volume with most trades being mainly scalps off pop ups and drop downs. Hard to buy and hold this market with inflation showing and oil soo high with this action. Seems the market is waiting to see if the economy keeps ingoring oil on the consumer side. But, how long does that last till it hits home. I am already eyeing a mini-copper and have fits of rage when I fill up my tank. Still see images of Bush and Cheney laughing as it takes 70bucks to fill' er up. Thus, how long does the party continue till something breaks?

Goog was a "buy the panic" open. It seems that the news of this secondary caught a lot by surprise. On one end, it is dilutive, but on the other, raises some interesting questions on why the offerering. They obviously want to buy someone, being they have a lot of cash to continue their business model. They key is who? I think this debate is why the stock didn't totally crater off that news. This is probably why it bounced right of the open. And that open buy was the trade. Now it is all scalps intra-day and at the time I am posting this the stock is lissless.

VPHM on the other hand shot up quick to that previous high, pulled back and I got in at the low 14s and seems to be working that new high nicely. Going probably for a point on this one.

Well I am keeping my powder dry for a news play or for a big up or down move. Outside of that there is nothing.

LimboVille

2005-08-17T07:22:00.000-07:00

Market looks to be buying time here. Some decent news from the tech is propping things but with housing tanking and such there is internal problems. The PPI showed actual inflation which amazes me being everything I have bought lately has been cheaper...not!. So now we wait for the oil numbers which might either push us up or down. But in general no real trades. REDF trading well but looks a little extended but the India market is hitting new highs so who knows and the other is BCSI on their earnings. The stock is so whippy and thin it kind of isn't a great scalper. All I am doing is scalping things like GOOG when it gets hit on the two minute intra-day bar. But outside of that, the market is deciding something here.

Oil to the moon!

2005-08-10T19:00:00.000-07:00

Seems like reality finally woke up today as the market did a lame gap open without conviction and smartly sold off. We started off very positive at least in the Dow and yet the Nasdaq acted like a sick puppy. Alot of previous leaders diverged early showing the market wasn't all there to break to a new high. GOOG, BIDU and others continued to sell. Goog broke down some, where BIDU seems to maybe putting in a short term bottom. Rarely does lemming money give up buying the pie in the sky without a bounce. I am looking for a gap down reversal or gap up retest and take out the day high play. Will probably play it light, being it is such a thin and deadly mover if your on the wrong side of the trade. Outside of that the trade seems fading the gaps and shorterm run ups.

Outside of the market I had some interesting conversation with a real estate money man today. He was talking about how out of control things are in Florida and the stories he told pretty much confirm what I believe is a top to this real estate bubble. I think within the year it blows and when it does it is going to be ugly. There is soo much cheap money funding this fantasy that when it drys up, there is going to be heck to pay. And of course if you were paying attention, our great leaders passed the re-vamping of the bankruptsy laws. So when things hit the fan, there is going to be alot of pain and many people will be financially crushed. I wont get into this now being this subject has been beat to death and of course more signs of a top is when you have money managers writing into the Wallstreet Journal telling us how it is different this time. Yeah ok. Remember, there is nothing new under the sun and fear versus greed is inborn and will never change.

Yet again

2005-07-21T06:15:00.000-07:00

Well bios flew and the market which was down on the open, went straight up by the end of the day. Google went green! There were a ton of plays mainly in bios as I said on the open but also bounce plays. All in all a progressive day even though market is becoming more and more overbought. Vix is where it was back at the end of 1993 right before the 94 market slide. But anymore it seems no one cares.

Today we have some interesting plays. Ebay back in vogue so a trade there somewhere. DXPE might be one. Big earnings pop so if it holds it might go more. Also float is thin. On the downside look for housing and retailers. Mainly discounters due to the Yuan revaluation. Logic is goods are not as cheap as they were yesterday. Housing down due to interest rates might rise.

So it looks like a trade the earnings play day. Also, keep a watch on the incident in London. So far there doesn't seem to be a big market reaction but still something to watch.

Well we always have Biotech

2005-07-20T05:50:00.000-07:00

Seems Yahoo and Intel have put a kabosh on the "buy and collect free money market". At least in that sector, but who knows. The key today is to watch the open and the action on INTC and YAHOO. Do they bounce or do they stay down. I think GOOG will be the interesting one. It was down 10 in after hours, I know cause I bought from 302 down to 298 as my hair turned gray! Will it shake off Yahoo and will people buy it thinking they are taking things away from Yahoo? We won't know the real answer to that till after tomorrow's close when they report. But this should be some interesting trading.
Bios will be where the action is being AMGN is up huge. That group has been on hold for the last couple of days after a huge run up. Thus they might take over leadership.

Pigs are entering the stratosphere

2005-07-14T11:26:00.000-07:00

Well we are 2hrs from the close and the market is up nicely. The only problem I see is a kind of reluctance up here. We gaped big and ran with a pullback as oil gets wacked. If you notice the bonds didn't rally on the CPI data probably due to most of the "inflation friendly" report was skewed. It seems to be low due to the discounts offered from the big 3. Thus, yields are creeping up. Does this mean we crater? Don't know, but being we are overextended in many issues and sectors like biotech. Look at the BBH! Thus I feel it is dangerous to take any big positions. I am pretty much cashed out sitting and waiting for a better buy point or I will play a news play or the next "low float" flying pig. For example, BOSC was a buy on the open and ran nicely on news. I made nice on it but didn't get the most out of it due to the history of this thing selling the pops. So now I wait till the next tuna runner.

One thing to note though is when you have wild speculative runners and a perception of no risk, it sometimes marks a shorterm top.

Update

2005-07-12T11:14:00.000-07:00

Well CAFE still running.. Waiting for that parabolic intraday speed run to sell Other than that, market still green 4 days in a row.

Pausing

2005-07-12T08:50:00.000-07:00

Well we gaped lower and pretty much have been down a little with lackluster action outside of BOOM and that CAFE deal. Boom has a big short position and tends to trade very whippy as evident with the open. It ran reversed in a minute, went red then an hour later took out all time high! Cafe was the buy at the open with the Walmart news. Fairly thin deal so the mo mo people will talk it up and was rewarding off the get go. Where it goes from here who knows. Have to look at the volume throughout the day to see if this is more than a one day wonder.

DSTI looks like an inside day and oil seems to be popping ABLE and GEOI. DSTI went through the previous all time high but failed to carry though. The stock trades like this though. Big pops and drops and head fakes. Seems to be more of a swing trade type stock than an intraday trader.

Markets technically are still overbought shorterm as shown by some key technical indicators such as trading outside the bollingers. SMH etc. But so far no real selling so if we pause a couple days, we might build on the rally. Of course if oil keeps going up, all bets are up. That is the problem with this market, it' that damn oil. If oil was 40 or 50bucks a share, we probably would be at a new year high, but everytime we get some mo mo, oil rears it's ugly head.

Well another HOD close.

2005-07-11T13:25:00.000-07:00

Markets paused midday but continued the straight up march. DSTI on verge of a break and BOOM was active today. But I wouldn't touch BOOM up here unless it truly breaks to a new high. Housing and related stocks like IPII straight up also and we have some situation where they are way overview's. So I am picking my breakouts carefully and not chasing the market. With the vix hitting a 9yr low and the total lack of fear out there, it sets us up for an airpocket. Going to keep scalping till we get a pullback and a healthier re-entry point.

Another straight up day

2005-07-11T07:32:00.000-07:00

Another day begins with straight up except for GOOG. Seems that some firm came out and threw some water on it. Google seems to be totally out of this game right now which is ok if they actually smoke there earnings. Actually creates a better earnings play if it sells or doesn't participate. Now if they do smoke earnings, buying quick in the aftermarket could be profitable.

Alot of movers totay but more extentions of recent runs. Many new highs on fairly thin nasdaq leaders. Boom getting some juice today but the key is if it holds. Many highly shorted deals are getting the same attention like FORD, JMDT etc. IMGC andBEBE are on verges of breaks. IMGC looks like a classic canslim but has to close with volume. DSTI had some news but as of an hour in, hasn't build on the run. Would like to see it take out days high and keep the volume to possibly challenge that old high in the near future. More weirdness on the WPTE bid. Feel initially now is coming back but sheeze who knows what the deal is with that. Go long and it could landmine by halting. I will look elsewhere.

When Bad is Good and Good is Gooder.

2005-07-10T19:49:00.000-07:00

Well after the terror attacks the market flys, which is pretty much par for the course in the markets lately. We are in pure mo mo land. "Mo mo" as in momentum. You could bottle crap and investors would bid up your shares to the moon if they saw the stock going up. Same mentality as in 99 just in a lesser way.
The markets broke out of a trading range on Friday on lackluster volume. Since volume is truth, I would like to see a pick up before committing too much outside of daytrades. Basically, I hate markets like this due to the overbought conditions in some stocks on putrid volume. So you have to play the musical chairs game. Rather than buy a pullback, you have to buy up which means if you buy wrong, and sellers show up, you get wacked. Then you get weird stuff like CTTY going up 10 pts on some "possible" bid of 700mill for a company that hardly does any sales. Why can't I find people like that to buy my house for 5x the market price. Those are scary due to the possibility of it halting which it did.
Other stocks moved up nicely while your old favorites of the "mo mo" crowd, Goog and Boom lagged. There are a couple that look like a classic canslim type breakout, but they are not there yet.
Well, next week begins the earnings game and even though the schedule is light, there should be some fun there. BRCM and AAPL are two that hit next week. Usually during earnings, the market kind of churns and individual deals that smoked earnings, fly and intraday run and those that didn't go the other way. But in all, this is where the fun starts especially in after hours trading. Visions of that last Google earnings where it popped 10 in seconds and I was a deer in headlights. Not this time! Of course I probably will get on the wrong side and those headlights will be a Peterbilt and I will become venison. Ahh..let it go. There is always another trade. (This must be repeated a billion times or you will be sucked into the venge trade)

Bubblelicious

2005-06-02T13:12:00.000-07:00

Yes it is bubble time today in the market. No fear straight up junk into the stars. Hmmm lets see, we have yields collapsing, oil still up there yet the market is flying like there is no tomorrow. Goog goes straight up, parabolic, without a selloff off. Pure speculation and people talking about a second mortgage to buy the stock. Then you have your friends at major brokerages with their tulip weather forecast. Amazing that these people didn't learn the first time in 1999. Oh well. What goes up, especially fast, must come down.
I still don't get this no inflation talk. You have housing prices soaring, oil prices still up, material cost through the roof and the market is flying like inflation is dead and the fed is done. Yeah ok. The fed, the same one who saw irrational exuberance in tech stocks, is going to stand idly by and watch housing explode into a massive bubble that could be 10 more deadly to the economy than the tech wreck was.
I am just scalping at this point on momentum deals. Don't like to long markets that are straight up without some kind of retracement. Thus the danger is high up here and the fear is low..

All in??

2005-05-24T08:46:00.000-07:00

Market look to be shorterm overbought in some areas dramatically. Market just has gone too far too fast on some deals with mainly a shortsqueeze. The lack of worry and pure bullishness isn't good either. If we retrace down to 118 to 117.5 on the SPYs then I will re-enter.
I am shorting ANTP and GOOG here being they are technically extended. Made some nice money on BOOM break on the longside but now that it has retraced so far off the high, makes me worried about re-entry.
Some money shift to the semis also is evident. All in all seems some money out of the inflated squeeze stocks back to the semis. But still, nasdaq is overbought thus the danger of a pullback is there.

All is fine

2005-05-20T08:35:00.000-07:00

Well, the market has gone ballistic after we had some good CPI numbers earlier in the week. Seems that now, all the sudden, the market trusts the numbers even though PPI was up the day before and previous numbers were revised all over the place. Also, this China tarriff move can add to price inflation but the market doesn't care. More of a snow job that prices are flat. Sure, no inflation. But, as usual, it is all about MO MO..."Momentum". Money pours in due to the fear of missing out on the run. So, it all goes back to a very important theme. Go with the flow. Even though the market is often wrong in a sense, it is always right as far as short term price movement. (If someting goes from 1 to 2 doesn't matter if it is logical. It still went from 1 to 2. And that is how you make money.)

Up here were are a little overkill and need a breather. Many stocks are straight up off the bottom like RIMM and BRCM, so I am sitting on the sidelines. I will short those on a pop or surge unless they consolidate here over time. The movers today are mainly ABLE(low float mixed with good earnings), today's MO MO favorite, and LCAV. Others such as NGPS, look good on the chart but are slowly pushing. I am waiting for CKCM, HANS, JDMT etc..pretty much any real strong deal that retraces before I go long and also, of course GOOG to do a dip. But, all in all, an uneventful day after a big up week.

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain

2005-05-05T07:40:00.000-07:00

F and GM to debt!! What does it all mean. Well seems like the market doesn't care but what do you expect from the analyst. Buy buy buy!! It is always a buy! Which is interesting due to if this really falls out and makes people wonder how strong is this economy. But, in general, the market seems to be just waiting for that employment number tomorrow. The big movers of today where BOOM, SHLD, WFMI. They traded the best throughout the day. I did some trades on BOOM and GOOG but I am reluctant to take any big positions being how far we have bounced and all the data coming. Better to keep the powder dry.

Oh help us great "W"!

2005-04-28T12:38:00.000-07:00

Hmmm market has been wacky based on oil. Oil goes down market rallies and vice versa. We came out with weak GDP that also included a negative price deflator that threw the market for a loop. We are still trading in a trading range but the bias is negative. The only real movers today are some earnings plays such as KOMG and SBUX. Also, SDRX broke out of a trading range but, with such an ugly market, it is difficult to take long positions on these breaks. The only relief I see from this, “stagflation” fear, is for oil to drop aggressively thus providing some relief to the shell shocked consumer. That should provide a market floor then, of course, the naysayers would start complaining about such a drop as being “too” simulative. You are dammed if you do, or dammed if you don’t.
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As far as groups go, only the real breakdown I see is the steel stocks. Zeus warned of a buildup in inventory and as weak economic numbers are released, that group continues to get hammered.

The only trades I have been doing all week are GOOG scalps. Mainly after the open if the stock drops fast, go in long and post a sell on the bounce. Here is where we are on the graph today. By the looks of it the downside could be ugly. But until that happens, I am sticking to the above strategy.

daytradingNshortswings

2005-04-26T11:54:00.000-07:00

daytradingNshortswings

Boringville

2005-04-26T09:45:00.000-07:00

Market is doing sqwat in this range. Seems like we are still range bound. The big change from my last post has been the collapse of the magical commodity stocks like steel. Yes, the so called experts said that couldn't go wrong as usual but there ya go. Steel stocks have been hammered lately. Maybe has to do with China going to ramp up exports and that steel prices has come down nicely. You can see this in every sector. It it like outside of realestate, the economy is dead.
Seems like the productivity, "miracle", i.e., illegal immigrant labor domestically and outsoursing to china and india internationally, we are fine tuning this economy into no real growth. As production goes overseas, so will innovation. And correct me if I am wrong, we are still not in a global govt. Thus beyond the shorterm effects, what happens to the status of our national security?
Well enough of that rambling and back to the market. No real trades today outside of the GOOG bounce off the open and SHLD. Market having trouble with the SPX mini contract thus seems to taken out some juice. As you can see from the graph below, we are stuck in this range with low volume on the advances.

Huge Breakout!!! Wahooo!..Oh wait. No volume

2005-03-06T18:44:00.000-08:00

Odd the market breaks to a new high on low volume. So where is the conviction? Metal stocks went ga ga and so did housing. I guess with a flying economy, interest rates are not going to go higher. But component costs will. Yeah ok! So basically I sit back and watch to see if volume confirms this move. If no volume we might see a pullback into the old range expecially if we get some inflation fears creaping back in. Or maybe our old friend "Earl" or Oil will suddenly stop the party. If oil prices break that high of 55, all bets are off. All the "it is different this time" talkers on CNBC can't even talk away that one. Trading wise it was boring outside the metals and oils. If you bought the indices like the DIA or the SPYs it was great. Outside of runaway tuna like ABLE there wasn't alot of fun out there.

2005-03-04T07:56:00.000-08:00

This morning the market had better than expected employment numbers and the Dow reacted. What is strange is the response by the bonds. It seems the inflation end of the report was benign enough to create a "sell the news" response. Still, the market doesn't have the umph to say we are going alot higher. It seems that oil is still the achille's heel. If oil does test the highs,and breaks those highs, I doubt the market powers ahead. Also, how can material prices going out of control not be factored into inflation eventually?

No Inflation! To infinite and beyond! with housing and material stocks that is.

2005-02-27T18:46:00.000-08:00

Market goes from inflation on the horizon to no inflation in 4 days yet oil rises and material stocks go through the roof. Seems like some are these are on a short term parabolic blow off top.
Key is, can this mentality continue without some reality check? How can the market be driven by material stocks to the promise land without component cost effecting the end pricing or the profit margins of companies. Of course this is all long-term talk and I am a daytrader so my concern is a reality type reversal event occuring. Or as I like to call, an "air pocket"